Donald Trump is not going to run for a second term.
I hope I’m wrong because the nation both needs and deserves a chance to repudiate his presidency in the November election.
We need the chance to send a clear message to him and everyone who supported him that they are unworthy of representing this country because they do not respect the ideals to which we aspire as a people. But it’s worse than that. They don’t even respect common decency or telling the truth.
And that is why we need the chance the give Trump the beating of his life in November.
But it is looking less and less likely that we will get that chance, with the growing scandal involving Russian bounty on the heads of American soldiers in Afghanistan while Trump was holding hands with Putin probably the breaking point for his presidency.
Anyone who cares about truth knows Trump is unfit for the office he holds, but the last four years have proven that he is also an incompetent blowhard who couldn’t lead a boy scout troop on a hike.
From his failure of leadership during the coronavirus pandemic to stoking racial divisions in the face of protests for racial justice and police reform to helping the economy by insisting businesses open too soon that are now having to shut back down, Trump is running the country in the ground the way he ran the six companies he led into bankruptcy before he got to Washington.
This time, though, even Republicans who support him only because he is one of them might well turn away after the latest news that he prefers Putin over protecting American soldiers.
The polls are telling the story of a majority of voters having had enough of this small man-child being in the White House.
Since he was inaugurated I have followed Nate Silver’s Five Thirty-Eight polling on Trump’s approval/disapproval ratings literally every day. Within a few months, a pattern in his ratings set in and has changed not more than a couple of percentages up or down for the entire time…until the last three weeks
As of this writing, Trump’s approval rating is 40% and his disapproval rating is at an all-time high of 56%.
That is something new, dramatically new. His disapproval ratings have averaged between 8 to 10 percent higher than his approval ratings. A few times they have gone up or down by 4 or 5 points, but always settling back into the old pattern within a few days.
For the past three-plus weeks things have changed. Trump’s numbers have gotten worse than ever before and have stayed that way. I expected them to readjust to the old pattern, but thus far it hasn’t happened.
These numbers are now being reflected in almost every poll being taken. Trump is losing, and losing big by historical standards at this point in the presidential race.
According to a recent Gallop Poll analysis comparing Trump with past presidents seeking re-election, he stands at the lowest point than any of them at this point in the campaign, and also is the only one never to achieve a 50% or above approval rating at any point in his presidency.
The facts are unequivocal. Trump has never been as popular as past presidents going all the way back to Franklin Roosevelt, but is way ahead of them in public disapproval ratings.
With this latest shocking scandal these trends are likely to get even worse for Trump, exacerbating his extreme narcissism that will drive him to find an exit ramp to avoid the humiliating defeat that is coming.
The most likely scenario is his declaring that he will not run again because, after all, he has been the greatest President in history, doing more in four years than others have done in eight, and on top of that the Democrats are poised to rig the election against him.
I hope this does not happen because the nation needs a Trump catharsis, that process of releasing our pent-up anger and disgust at this great pretender of a political leader, “thereby providing relief from [these] strong or repressed emotions.”
We truly need that moment when the body politic fights back with its right to vote and overwhelmingly rejects Trump and everything about him and his presidency.
But, alas, we may not get it, yet all may not be lost if we don’t.
Another Trump cathartic moment may come when we see Trump in court being charged with numerous crimes he committed before and during his presidency, or it may come when he is humiliated before the whole world as the International Criminal Court charges him for crimes against humanity for separating families and putting children in cages.
Sooner or later, then, the great American catharsis is coming, and when it does the nation’s collective sigh of relief will reverberate around the world.
linnposts.com 
While a national catharsis would be great, I’ll take him being gone most anyway it comes.
A continuing discussion within our family is who would be his replacement in the election? I don’t think it would be Pence. Nikki Haley comes to my mind…
The shock will be such that Republicans probably won’t know what to do. Re Haley. I think it would make more sense for her to wait four years than take a chance she could beat the anti-Trump vote that will still come out. Maybe not?
Romney keeps coming to my mind. While they see him as a traitor to Trump, could he bring the republican defectors back to the party? I wonder what the Lincoln Project would do in the case of a viable candidate. Their goal is to defeat Trump but they are still republicans.
These are good questions, Nancy, and I certainly don’t know the answers to them. We will have to wait and see, I suppose, but the one good thing, whatever happens, is that Trump will be gone and the country will be safe from a level of corruption, chaos, and attack we have never seen before by a president, and hopefully won’t ever see again.
Let’s just hope we have our chance to tell him what we think of him.
President Trump’s unique achievement, if you can call it that, will have been to make of himself the worst of your country’s Presidents – ever. And, if as people say he resigns, rather than faces the electors, then that will have removed the very last shred of respect people have for him. As I understand, your country has no liking for ‘quitters’.
Looking back through history, the previous worst President, Herbert Hoover, at least lost a fair election against Franklin Delano Roosevelt. And looking at my own country’s history for a parallel, I think of the deposed James II who fled to France after the success of the ‘Glorious Revolution’ of 1688 that put the Protestant William III and Queen Mary II on the throne. And even the (supposedly) villainous King Richard III died on the battlefield, facing the enemy – a true Plantagenet to the last.
If there are any gains to be made from the likely fall and disgrace of President Trump, these will be a desire for root and branch reform and a deep cleaning of your country’s institutions, so that Trumpery, or anything like it, will never take root again.
Very much the same goes for my country too.
Nigel, you always give a helpful historical context to these subjects, Thank you for that. At this point, though, I am not hopeful that any level of the cleaning of our institutions will occur after Trump is gone, mainly because the Republican Party has no interest in governing anymore. It only wants power. The story of its opposition to Barack Obama about everything, whether good for the country or not, suggest they will not change any time soon and will need to be kept at bay by the Democrats until new leadership among them emerges. So for the foreseeable future, hope does not spring eternal for me, leaving me to settle for the consolation of saving the Republic from Trump and Trumpers.
in other words we all need that night of euphoria when he gets his ass handed to him, and another add on he refuses to leave the WH and we get to see him dragged out in hand cuffs by US Marshall’s. too sweet!!!
Yes!
Amen!! Would it not be wonderful if he threw in the towel??? Have been hoping for this to happen but he may think America can’t do without him. However, the taste of defeat is not for him and his ego. Will talk to you soon on Zoom- Love, Gay
Yes, we’ll talk soon.
My fear is the havoc he can do to our country that is already on a huge ventilator as it is. His vindictive nature cannot be denied. His evil retaliation record scares me. I hope to be able to actually experience an election in November but it seems so far away…
Robin, your fears about him are very real. My therapist friend says Trump’s extreme narcissism means he will try to destroy everything he cannot have. That is what he is doing now with his efforts to divide Americans. We can only hope that the news media exposing everything he tries to do will limit the damage.
RollieB — You captured my feelings right out of the chute with your first sentence! Bill Blackwell
Jan, I have been waiting patiently for this remarkable post of yours. I knew it was coming. I vividly remember that many moons ago, you released a post that I thought was extremely “prophetic”. In that post you, with great confidence, concluded that Trump would resign. You stated that Bill Barr would provide him the perfect parachute for his sins (and if Barr didn’t, Trump would pardon himself). At the time, I had not gone so far as to believe that he would resign. And many of your readers, were not so sure either. But that post of yours back then, changed my thinking on all of this. I felt at the time that Trump still had a chance of being convicted of impeachment because a few Republican leaders would produce a spine (wishful thinking on my part). And felt that he would resign to save grace. But the Republican Party and its political leaders and influencers, rallied to protect him and secure his throne.
But the events and Trump’s actions following Impeachment have clearly shown that this man is clearly “intentionally dividing and destructing” for his own self interests and there is no limit to what he could do between now and the election.
So, it is now up to the Republican Party to either “punt, or throw a Hail Mary pass”. Trump’s actions (and lack thereof) of the last 2-3 months have been fueled by the far right contingency of their party. So, if he goes down, so do they. I remember saying to you moons ago that I could not understand why the Republican Party did not “take control” and rein this man in for their own survival. It may make all of us “feel better” to vote Trump out of office. But our future rests with what the Republican Party decides to do at this point. At this point in time, Republicans stand to lose most battle ground states in the Senate, as well as the presidency. And we just learned today that Jared Kushner is organizing a coup of Trump’s re-election campaign. So, anything could still happen at this point. But it is now time for the Republican moderates to stand up and be counted. There is no evidence that that they will do anything but punt. But I suspect that all the think tank groups of their party are plotting a “Hail Mary Pass”. One of your readers suggested that Pence will (not) throw the pass. I agree, he will not. Another suggested that Niki Haley will throw the pass. I don’t think so as you don’t. And another suggested that it might be Romney that throws the pass. I agree he is a good man and might connect. But there is too much water over the dam with Romney. These are all reasonable suggestions. But my thought would be this: If the Republican Party wants to save itself, John Kasich should be their presidential candidate, and Nikki Haley should be their vice presidential candidate. This is their best alternative in my mind. This would force Biden to have to compete “talent for talent”. I still think he can. But this would change all the dynamics considerably. It would at least give Republicans a chance to protect all the damage that Trump has produced.
But, if they cannot, and if Biden wins against whoever, and the Dems take control of the Senate, then I believe the damage done will be repaired. And I cannot wait to see this happen in my lifetime.
At any rate, your optimistic view of our future is now contagious.
This too will pass.
John
John. I had not thought of a Kasich/Haley ticket, but it is not far fetched at all. My guess, though, is that Pence will be the fall guy to lose to Biden and open the door to several Republicans like Kasich and Haley to fight it out in 2024. Doesn’t matter to me. Trump will be gone and I think Republicans will have damaged themselves to an extent that it will take several years for them to recover, not least because McConnell and the old Tea Party members in the House have done as much damage to the Party and the country as Trump.
Jan, I certainly agree that it would be good and indeed cathartic for the country to have the chance to vote Trump out of office. And there is every indication that that is what will happen. Yet, I don’t share your level if certainly that it will happen. President Trump and the RNC just had a record setting month in contributions. The likely chance that the next president will appoint 1 or more Supreme Court justices and cement a conservative court long after Trump is gone will continue to be a reason for republicans to overlook the dangerous incompetence that defines this administration.
Wilbur, someone has said that many anti-Trump voters are suffering from 2016 PTSD. It is possible that you are one of them, though hardly alone if you are. 2016 was an aberration due to a confluence of factors not present now. More than that, we now have four years of a Trump presidency we didn’t have then. In addition, the most potent force against Trump at the moment is the Lincoln Project run by former Republicans. I urge you to stop letting 2016 color the way you see 2020. If every Republican in the country voted for Trump, which they won’t, but if they did he would still lose. He is all the motivation Democrats and independents need to come out to vote. We will, and because we are a majority of voters we will win. Cheer up, my friend.
Thank you. I hope you and Joy are staying well.
We are, Pat. Thanks for asking. Hope you are, too.
Jan,
I share your idea that we need t-Rump catharsis. I doubt, however, that he will resign; not that narcisistic-egotist!
I just this minute recalled a Chinese curse: “May you always live in interesting times.” We have, indeed, been living the curse for nearly four years. I had never really understood the irony of the “curse”, but I do now. In spades!
Stay well and Covid-free.
Cheerz!
Gene
Interesting times, Gene, might be an understatement. I don’t think either of us has ever seen anything like what we are seeing now. Nor did we ever imagine we would.
You couldn’t be more right! Cheerz! gene
Jan, your post certainly struck a nerve! So many comments!
Keep up the good work.
Mary, I think I just touched everybody’s hope for the future of the country that depends on Trump being out of the WH one way or the other.
Another perspective on the election –
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls
Dream on, Steve. What I cannot figure out, though, is what is the world has happened to you that you would support a man as morally unfit, politically incompetent, and a known criminal like Trump to be president. That is just astounding to me. No matter, in five months the nation will say unequivocally that it has enough of this clown show and big tent chaos. That’s why I hope he will run.